Ecological Integrity of Avoided Deforestation Projects
2026 · Published in Nature Climate Change 16(7): 769–773 · DOI 10.1038/s41558-026-02657-2
In one sentence
Most accredited avoided-deforestation carbon projects do not maintain the ecological condition of forests better than comparable unprotected areas.
Summary
Avoided-deforestation projects generate carbon credits by reducing forest loss, but it is unclear whether they also keep forests ecologically healthy. The paper compiles 196 accredited projects from major voluntary carbon registries and compares project areas with matched control areas in the same biome, excluding a 10-km zone around each project to allow for local leakage. For the 133 projects with good matches, it evaluates five indicators of ecological integrity: biodiversity intactness, forest landscape integrity, fragmentation, canopy height and net greenhouse-gas flux. Most projects show mixed, negligible or negative effects relative to controls, which points to shortcomings that limit these projects’ ability to safeguard ecosystems and sequester carbon.
Abstract as published
Reducing deforestation is proposed as a global climate action, yet it remains unclear whether carbon projects based on such interventions also maintain forests’ ecological conditions. Here we evaluate 133 projects against matched controls using five ecological-integrity indicators, to show that most projects have mixed, negligible or negative impacts relative to control areas. Results highlight fundamental shortcomings of these climate solutions that limit their ability to safeguard healthy ecosystems and sequester carbon.
Citation
Kelly Ong, Tao Chen, Zhimin Chen, Carlos T. Pérez-Brito, Yiwen Zeng (2026). Ecological integrity of avoided deforestation projects. Nature Climate Change, 16(7), 769–773. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02657-2
BibTeX
@article{ong2026ecological,
title = {{Ecological integrity of avoided deforestation projects}},
author = {Kelly Ong and Tao Chen and Zhimin Chen and Carlos T. Pérez-Brito and Yiwen Zeng},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
year = {2026},
volume = {16},
number = {7},
pages = {769--773},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-026-02657-2}
}